供大于需矛盾或略有缓解 2026年钢铁价格重心或小幅上移

Group 1 - The steel market is expected to experience a slight upward shift in prices by 2026, driven by a balance between supply constraints and recovering demand in manufacturing, despite a continued decline in the real estate sector [1][3] - The global iron ore production is projected to reach 2.65 billion tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 0.68%, supported by the commissioning of the Simandou iron ore project and expansions by major miners [1] - Domestic scrap steel supply is anticipated to reach approximately 320 million tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.28%, due to increased vehicle dismantling and relaxed import policies [1] Group 2 - The steel supply side is expected to face strict control measures, with a slight decline in total crude steel production and capacity in 2026, as new capacity additions are prohibited [2] - The demand for steel is projected to show a mixed trend, with a continued decline in real estate construction but a slight increase in demand from infrastructure projects, expected to grow by 1.5% to 2.0% [2] - Manufacturing demand is expected to rise, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors, with the home appliance industry maintaining a growth rate of around 6% [2] Group 3 - Overall, the steel market is likely to see a slight decrease in demand, particularly for construction steel, while the share of steel used in manufacturing is expected to increase [3] - The pressure of oversupply is anticipated to ease slightly compared to 2025, with reduced cost support and a potential recovery in industry profitability, leading to limited government price interventions [3]