智通财经网·2025-12-19 06:39Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that the upcoming creative wave poses risks to Prada (01913) as renowned creative directors join competitive brands, making it difficult to see how Prada and Miu Miu can maintain growth momentum [1] - Despite confidence in the group's good management and cheap stock price, there is no clear reason for the group to outperform competitors in the coming months; thus, the target price is slightly reduced from HKD 53 to HKD 51, with a rating of "in line with the market" [1] - The firm anticipates that Prada will be one of the few personal luxury goods groups to report a continued slowdown in total sales and retail sales in Q4, with Miu Miu's growth rate expected to slow significantly, projecting a Q4 year-on-year growth of only 17%, down from 29% in Q3 and 49% in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - For the Prada brand, Morgan Stanley slightly raises its Q4 organic sales growth (OSG) forecast to flat year-on-year, indicating that the brand's momentum remains robust [2] - For the Miu Miu brand, the Q4 year-on-year growth forecast is downgraded to 17%, indicating a continued slowdown compared to the 28.6% growth in Q3; however, Miu Miu is still expected to maintain strong momentum and performance due to its product appeal [2] - At the group level, Morgan Stanley lowers its growth forecast for Q4 2025 to 4.4% and for the entire year to 7.6%, leading to a reduction in earnings per share forecasts for the next two years by 0.6% and 2.7%, respectively [2]