高库存高压榨量宽松格局不变 预计豆二震荡偏空

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downturn, with soybean futures showing weak fluctuations, and the main contract reported at 3651.00 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 1.88% [1] - Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture forecasts the soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season to remain stable at 17.4 million hectares compared to the previous month [1] - In Brazil's Paraná state, soybean production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 21.96 million tons, unchanged from November's forecast, indicating a 4% increase from the previous year if realized [1] Group 2 - The USDA reported that as of November 27, net soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season were 1.106 million tons, down from 2.321 million tons the previous week, with net sales to China at 509,000 tons [1] - Brazil's national grain exporters association (ANEC) predicts soybean exports for December to reach 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons [1] - New Century Futures anticipates a bearish trend for soybean futures due to concerns over slow U.S. soybean sales to China and high domestic inventories, suggesting a focus on South American weather and U.S.-China trade developments as uncertainties [2]