Why The Bitcoin 'Santa Rally' Could Begin With A Flush To $80,000

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the psychological level of $90,000, indicating increased pressure on leveraged positions and breaking from its consolidation range [1] - The market is punishing excessive risk-taking, with Bitcoin clearing its first major support at $87,000, suggesting further downside targets are still in play [3] Analyst Insights - Prominent analyst Trader Mayne describes the breakdown from the triangle apex as a significant short-term development, warning of potential further downside as leverage is flushed out [2][3] - Ethereum (ETH) is showing relative strength, holding key monthly demand zones, while the ETH/BTC pair is trending higher [4] Future Projections - Mayne predicts a high probability of Bitcoin reaching the $80,000 lows if U.S. equities weaken further, noting that a 2%-3% pullback in the S&P 500 could push risk assets into demand zones [4][5] - The current higher-timeframe downtrend remains in control, with bears retaining the advantage until Bitcoin breaks its diagonal resistance and reclaims key levels [5] Macro Considerations - Upcoming macro risks include the Bank of Japan's policy decision, which could lead to renewed unwinding of the yen carry trade if rates are raised, adding pressure to global risk assets [5]