12月国内菜籽油价格或继续下跌

Core Viewpoint - The domestic and international oilseed market is facing increasing bearish factors, leading to expectations of declining prices for canola oil in December 2023 due to rising supply and decreasing import costs [1][9]. Supply Factors - Global canola seed supply is expected to increase significantly, with Canada projecting a record production of 21.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season, an increase of 1.77 million tons from previous estimates, representing a 13.31% rise [1]. - Australia is also expected to achieve a record canola seed production of 7.2 million tons for the 2025/26 season, up by 126,000 tons or 21.21% from the previous year [1]. - The EU is projected to produce 20 million tons of canola seed for the 2025/26 season, an increase of 3.36 million tons or 19.95% year-on-year [1]. Demand Factors - Canadian canola seed exports have significantly decreased, with cumulative exports for the 2025/26 season at 2.087 million tons, down by 1.801 million tons or 46.32% compared to the previous year [4]. - Despite an increase in domestic canola seed crushing in Canada, the limited growth combined with a substantial drop in export volume has led to a surplus in the domestic market [4]. Price Trends - The price of Canadian canola seed has been declining, with the main futures price at CAD 601.9 per ton as of December 16, down 7.04% from November and 1.73% from December 2024 [4]. - The cost of imported canola seed to China has also decreased, with a reported cost of CNY 3,894 per ton as of December 16, down 5.92% from November and 1.12% from December 2024 [4]. Domestic Market Impact - The arrival of Australian canola seed shipments has led to a decrease in domestic canola oil prices, with the price of imported canola oil at CNY 9,727 per ton as of December 16, down 5.93% from November but up 5.38% from December 2024 [5]. - The operational capacity of domestic oil mills is expected to rise to around 11% due to increased imports, contributing to a recovery in canola oil inventory levels [7]. Future Expectations - With the anticipated increase in global canola seed production and rising domestic supply, the average price of imported canola oil is expected to continue declining, projected at around CNY 9,835 per ton, a decrease of 3.50% month-on-month [9].