“拉尼娜”来不来？今冬冷不冷？

Core Viewpoint - The recent emergence of La Niña conditions has sparked public speculation about a potential "cold winter," but experts emphasize the complexity of climate predictions and the need for rational interpretation of such signals [1][2]. Group 1: La Niña Status vs. La Niña Event - The National Climate Center reported that the La Niña index reached -0.5°C in October, indicating the onset of La Niña conditions, but this does not equate to a La Niña event, which requires a sustained index below -0.5°C for at least five months [1]. - La Niña conditions are part of the ENSO phenomenon, which includes both warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases, and the distinction between status and event is crucial for accurate climate forecasting [1]. Group 2: Winter Weather Predictions - Current models suggest that while La Niña conditions are likely to persist this winter, the probability of a new La Niña event forming is low, reducing fears of a "double La Niña" scenario [2]. - Historically, La Niña events have been associated with colder winters in China, particularly in the central and eastern regions, but this correlation is not absolute, especially in the context of global warming [2][3]. Group 3: Climate Variability and Predictions - The frequency of warm winters during La Niña years has increased since 1986, with a 50% chance of colder winters during the last eight La Niña events [3]. - Current predictions indicate that most regions in China will experience temperatures close to or above the seasonal average, with significant fluctuations expected, leading to alternating periods of warming and cooling [4]. - The public is advised to rely on official meteorological forecasts and to understand the implications of La Niña conditions without overreacting [4].