一份“降温”的就业报告 美联储何时降息成新博弈核心

Group 1 - The core signal from global markets indicates that concerns over economic growth are replacing inflation fears as the key variable influencing asset prices [1] - A contradictory U.S. employment report triggered this shift, showing moderate growth in non-farm payrolls but an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, a three-year high, alongside significant downward revisions of previous data [1] - The market interprets this as a green light for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, strengthening expectations for a policy shift and causing a chain reaction across asset classes [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index continues to weaken due to the soft economic data, particularly the rise in unemployment, which undermines the dollar's interest rate advantage [1] - The U.S. stock market displays a mixed pattern of "recession trades" and "easing trades," with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 under pressure, particularly in the energy sector, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index rises due to lower long-term interest rates benefiting growth-oriented tech companies [1] - Commodity markets reacted directly to growth concerns, with international oil prices plummeting nearly 3%, reaching their lowest since early 2021, driven by fears of demand shrinkage and oversupply due to potential peace agreements in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 3 - Gold prices surged after the data release, reflecting increased attractiveness as a zero-yield asset due to rate-cut expectations, maintaining above $4300 per ounce despite slight pullbacks [2] - The market's focus is shifting from "how persistent inflation is" to "how weak the economy is," with Federal Reserve policy expectations becoming the anchor for asset pricing [2] - Domestic market dynamics may be influenced by the combination of overseas recession and easing expectations, alongside significant domestic policy advancements such as the Hainan Free Trade Port closure and Level 3 autonomous driving commercial licenses [2]