V型反转！锡价强势收复32.5万关口，“算力金属”迎来价值重估？

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in tin prices is driven by macroeconomic expectations, supply chain risks, and changing industry narratives, indicating a significant shift in market trading logic [1][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The immediate catalyst for the rebound is the weak U.S. employment data, which has raised expectations for an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a weaker dollar and providing upward valuation support for dollar-denominated commodities [1][2]. - The easing liquidity expectations are becoming a key variable influencing commodity market sentiment [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The core contradiction in the fundamentals remains the rigid supply tension, exacerbated by low inventory levels, which amplifies price volatility [2]. - Global tin inventories are at historically low levels, making the supply chain highly sensitive to any disruptions [2]. Group 3: Demand Shifts - The demand narrative is undergoing structural changes, with emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and advanced computing driving new long-term growth for tin, despite seasonal pressures in traditional consumer electronics [2]. - Tin is essential for high-end soldering materials, serving as a foundation for AI servers and high-performance chip packaging, thus gaining robust support from future demand [2]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The market focus has shifted from weak expectations to strong realities, with recent price rebounds reflecting a renewed investor attention on supply shortages [2]. - Any negative news from the supply side could be quickly priced in, especially in the context of extremely tight global inventories [2]. Group 5: Price Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that tin prices will maintain a strong oscillating pattern, supported by persistent supply constraints and low global inventories [3]. - The anticipated price fluctuation range is between 320,000 to 335,000 yuan/ton, with the ability to break through the 330,000 yuan/ton resistance depending on new supply signals and the strength of emerging demand [3].