铸造铝：受铝价与成本支撑，但涨幅或受需求库存制约

Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2602) strengthened, closing at 21,045 yuan, an increase of 130 yuan, or 0.62% [1] - The trading volume for the day was 3,574 lots, a decrease of 656 lots, while open interest fell by 222 lots to 17,404 lots [1] - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 23,100 yuan/ton, up by 100 yuan [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm employment growth exceeded expectations in November, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, indicating a lack of cyclical economic momentum [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will adopt a cautious stance regarding further interest rate cuts in the short term [1] - The dollar index rebounded but remained around 98.25, exerting limited pressure on aluminum prices [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price of raw material scrap aluminum remains high due to tight supply, providing solid support for aluminum alloy prices [2] - Despite support from the automotive sector, recent demand has shown signs of fatigue, raising concerns about the sustainability of future orders [2] - The current market sentiment is improving, with increased buying interest from downstream sectors, leading to a rise in trading volume [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to be supported by strong aluminum prices and cost pressures, but anticipated weakening demand and high inventory levels of recycled aluminum alloys may limit price increases [2]