长江有色：17日铅价下跌 年末消费淡季显现伦铅大幅累库

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a mixed impact from macroeconomic and fundamental factors, leading to a volatile trading environment with no clear direction [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - The lead price is influenced by a combination of macroeconomic expectations and industrial realities, with external factors like a weakening dollar providing some support for metal prices [2] - Domestic policies aimed at expanding demand are expected to marginally boost traditional sectors such as automotive battery replacements and electric two-wheeler consumption, stabilizing demand expectations [2] - Concerns over slowing growth in major overseas economies are suppressing risk appetite for industrial commodities, while insufficient domestic capital activity indicates a delayed transmission of policy signals to actual consumption recovery [2] Supply Side Analysis - The supply side is facing a complex situation of recovery and multiple constraints, with some domestic smelters resuming production post-maintenance, while northern mines are reducing output due to seasonal factors [3] - The supply of lead concentrate remains tight, and processing fees are operating at low levels [3] - The recovery of recycled lead supply is cautious, with improved raw material arrivals but limited by cold weather affecting battery collection and ongoing environmental regulations restricting capacity [3] - Overseas visible inventories have recently increased, raising concerns about supply pressure, while domestic social inventories, although still low historically, are showing signs of marginal accumulation [3] Demand Side Analysis - Demand is characterized by structural differentiation, with core demand in traditional sectors still supported, particularly in the lead-acid battery industry, which is entering a production and sales push towards year-end [4] - Replacement demand for automotive starter batteries in northern regions and winter stockpiling by downstream enterprises are contributing to stable operating rates [4] - Emerging sectors such as energy storage and backup power are providing stable consumption support, but structural pressures remain, including the ongoing substitution of traditional lead-acid batteries by electric vehicles and a sluggish export market [4] - Downstream small and medium enterprises are adopting a cautious procurement approach, primarily purchasing based on immediate needs, which limits demand growth potential [4] Industry Chain Analysis - Different pressures are faced across the industry chain, with upstream benefiting from tight lead concentrate supplies and rising by-product prices, maintaining profit margins [5] - The midstream smelting sector is constrained by high raw material costs, resulting in narrow profit margins [5] - Downstream battery enterprises are struggling to pass on costs due to high finished goods inventories and intense competition, leading to a breakdown in price transmission mechanisms and increased operational pressures across the chain [5] - The recycled lead industry is continuously upgrading with a focus on efficient battery recovery, enhancing resource utilization while reshaping raw material supply structures [5] Leading Enterprises - Leading companies in the industry are consolidating their advantages through dual strategies of resource and technology development, with mining firms raising capital for expansion and recycling companies advancing new technologies to improve economic efficiency and establish environmental benchmarks [5] Short-term Price Outlook - The short-term supply-demand balance remains tight, and cautious macroeconomic sentiment is expected to keep lead prices in a downward trend [6]