长江有色：降息预期重燃叠加油价大涨推动 18日锌价或上涨

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts has reignited, coupled with a surge in oil prices, leading to a rise in zinc prices in both the London and Shanghai markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight, London zinc prices rose by 1.2%, closing at $3072 per ton, with a trading volume of 13,235 lots, a decrease of 7,726 lots [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures opened higher and experienced wide fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 23,065 yuan per ton, up 140 yuan, or 0.61% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic zinc concentrate production in November was 311,400 tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons from October, as some northern mines entered a winter production cut phase [2]. - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global zinc ingot production of 1,192,800 tons and consumption of 1,219,600 tons by October 2025, indicating a supply shortage of 26,700 tons [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - Domestic zinc ingot inventories have been continuously declining, with a weekly decrease of 12.34%, reaching the lowest level in three and a half months [2]. - Despite the seasonal slowdown in demand, the current market shows strong support for zinc prices due to ongoing inventory depletion and increased purchasing activity from downstream sectors [2].