锡价周评：再立新红突破34万 龙头业绩爆发，产业链迎来价值重估

Price Trends - This week, tin prices on the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network exhibited a "V-shaped reversal," with a significant rebound after a mid-week low of 318,750 yuan/ton, ultimately closing at 337,500 yuan/ton on Friday [3] - The average price for the week was reported at 327,800 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 1,200 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [3] Macro Influences - Early in the week (December 15-16), macroeconomic expectations were mixed, leading to downward pressure on prices, with tin prices declining due to a lack of upward drivers in the industrial metals market [4] - A pivotal event occurred on December 18 when the U.S. November CPI and core CPI data significantly underperformed expectations, leading to a shift in market sentiment towards aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][7] Market Sentiment - Following the CPI data release, the market quickly transitioned to a "rate cut trade," resulting in a weaker dollar and a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which boosted liquidity expectations globally [7] - By the end of the week (December 18-19), a consensus on monetary easing emerged, further supporting tin prices, which rose to 337,500 yuan/ton, reflecting a strong correlation with the performance of U.S. tech stocks [8] Geopolitical Factors - During the week, geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cambodia impacted regional logistics and supply chains, creating short-term risks to the stability of global metal supplies [10] - The ongoing conflict in the DRC is expected to have a more direct and significant impact on tin prices, potentially leading to further price increases if the situation escalates [10] Industry Performance - Leading companies in the tin industry, such as Yunxi (Yunxi Co., Ltd.), reported substantial profit growth in the first three quarters, exceeding production targets amid high tin prices [11] - The industry is focusing on resource control through domestic and international acquisitions and technological upgrades, indicating a shift towards high-quality development models that emphasize efficiency and value addition [11] Short-term Price Outlook - Short-term tin price trends are expected to remain resilient at high levels, influenced by supply-side disruptions, macroeconomic sentiment, and demand structure changes [12] - The core judgment is that tin prices are likely to oscillate within a high range, with significant upward movements requiring new supply crises or unexpected macroeconomic easing signals [12]