长江有色：19日锌价上涨 整体交投局面冷清

Core Viewpoint - The recent slight rebound in zinc prices is attributed to the interplay between U.S. inflation data and market sentiment, while poor domestic physical trading further constrains the market, indicating that short-term zinc prices will primarily experience high-level fluctuations and adjustments [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai zinc futures market showed volatility today, with the main contract (2602) opening at 22,985 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 23,090 CNY/ton, and closing at 23,075 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY, or 0.17% [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2602 contract was 88,361 lots, an increase of 2,041 lots, while the open interest rose by 2,640 lots to 86,365 [1]. - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,072.5 USD, an increase of 14.5 USD [1]. Group 2: Price Statistics - The ccmn comprehensive zinc price for 0 zinc was reported between 23,110-23,210 CNY/ton, with an average of 23,160 CNY, up 40 CNY; 1 zinc was between 23,030-23,130 CNY/ton, averaging 23,080 CNY, up 50 CNY [1]. - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price ranged from 22,770-23,070 CNY/ton, averaging 22,920 CNY, also up 50 CNY, while 1 zinc was between 22,700-23,070 CNY/ton, averaging 22,850 CNY, up 50 CNY [1]. - The current spot zinc market quotes 0 zinc between 23,100-23,210 CNY/ton and 1 zinc between 23,030-23,130 CNY/ton [1]. Group 3: Macro and Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than market expectations and down from 3.0% in September, indicating a potential underestimation of actual inflation levels [2]. - Domestic smelters are experiencing increased maintenance, while downstream consumption shows resilience, leading to a continuous decline in social inventory [2]. - The import volume of zinc ore has decreased due to unfavorable price differentials, resulting in expanded losses for Chinese imports of zinc concentrate [2]. - Domestic smelters are beginning winter raw material reserves, favoring domestic zinc concentrate procurement, but competition among smelters is intensifying, leading to a significant drop in processing fees and reduced profits [2]. - The demand side is weakening, particularly in the real estate sector, with only the automotive sector showing some support due to policy backing [2].