1219热点追踪：进口成本抬升预期下，镍价大幅冲高

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices in China have rebounded, leading the domestic non-ferrous sector, with a maximum intraday increase of over 3% as market dynamics shift [9][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) announced that the nickel ore production target for the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is expected to be around 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons target set for 2025 [9][10] - APNI also revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to revise the pricing formula for nickel commodities at the beginning of 2026, focusing on including nickel-associated minerals (like cobalt) as independent mineral types for pricing and taxation [9][10] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In the traditional industry chain, nickel-iron prices remain stable, and the stainless steel spot market shows improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel at 1.0636 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.55% [10] - In the new energy industry chain, the decline in nickel prices, combined with year-end factors, has led to further price pressure from low-priced goods, while marginal demand is weakening, with a month-on-month decrease in the production of ternary precursors in December [10] - Domestic primary nickel inventory is showing signs of accumulation again, indicating that the oversupply situation for nickel remains unchanged, with weak demand and high inventory potentially limiting price increases [10]