乘联分会：预计12月狭义乘用车零售230万辆 新能源零售138万辆
智通财经网·2025-12-19 08:57

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in December is expected to show a slight month-on-month increase in retail sales, but a significant year-on-year decline, with a focus on the impact of policy changes and market dynamics [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Performance - The retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in December is projected to reach approximately 2.3 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [1][3] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to be around 1.38 million units, with a penetration rate of 60% [1][3] Group 2: Monthly Market Review - In November, retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles totaled 2.225 million units, marking a year-on-year decline of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1% [2] - NEV retail sales in November reached 1.321 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.0%, with a market penetration rate of 59.3% [2] Group 3: Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of December saw an average daily retail of 42,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 32.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.8% [4][5] - The second week experienced a recovery with an average daily retail of 67,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 16.8% but a month-on-month increase of 8.8% [4][5] - The average daily retail is expected to rise to 118,000 units in the fifth week, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% [4][5] Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - The automotive market is transitioning to a normalized seasonal operation as multiple consumer stimulus policies are being phased out [6] - The adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy from full exemption to half exemption is anticipated to influence consumer behavior, although no significant "last-minute rush" effect has been observed [6] - Several automakers have introduced "tax coverage plans" to stabilize consumer expectations amid policy changes, which may lead to some demand being postponed [6] - The industry is moving towards a more rational competitive environment, with new guidelines aimed at curbing irrational competition and promoting value-based competition [6]