长江有色：19日铅价小涨 现货刚需采购为主

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a slight upward trend in prices, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, with expectations for short-term price increases [1][2][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - The Shanghai lead futures market saw a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 16,880 yuan per ton, up 70 yuan or 0.42% [1]. - The latest price for London lead is reported at 1,976 USD, an increase of 16 USD [1]. - The average price for 1 lead in the Changjiang market is reported at 16,860 yuan, up 20 yuan from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - Global liquidity is at a critical turning point, with the US PCE inflation dropping to 2.5%, paving the way for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike marks a shift in the last remaining negative interest rate environment, impacting global capital flows and commodity pricing [2]. - The strong growth in China's electric vehicle sector continues to support structural demand for key metals like nickel, creating a complex interplay in macroeconomic factors [2]. Group 3: Supply Side Constraints - Supply tightness is not due to insufficient capacity but is shaped by costs, resources, and policy constraints, leading to a structural tightening in the market [3]. - Primary lead production is constrained by tight supply of lead concentrate and low processing fees, limiting growth in production capacity [3]. - The recycling of lead faces challenges due to structural tightness in waste battery supply and stricter environmental regulations, further reducing production capacity [3]. Group 4: Demand Side Challenges - The demand side lacks strong upward drivers, with lead-acid battery demand plateauing and facing ongoing pressure from lithium battery alternatives [4]. - Export markets are under pressure due to changing trade environments, failing to provide effective demand support [4]. - Overall demand is characterized as "rigid but lacking elasticity," indicating limited growth potential [4]. Group 5: Short-term Price Forecast - Short-term lead prices are expected to experience a strong corrective trend, with a higher probability of price increases in the near term [5].