长江有色：19日镍价上涨 现货询盘谨慎交投清淡

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing significant price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and demand dynamics, leading to a complex trading environment [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of the latest trading session, the Shanghai nickel futures saw an increase, with the main contract closing at 117,180 CNY/ton, up by 3,600 CNY/ton, representing a 3.17% rise [1]. - The average price for 1 nickel in the Changjiang market rose to 120,450 CNY/ton, an increase of 3,600 CNY from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia has announced a significant reduction in its medium to long-term production targets, signaling a strategic contraction in supply, which may inject a "premium expectation" into future prices [2]. - Despite the supply contraction signals, global visible inventories remain high, exerting downward pressure on current prices [2]. Group 3: Demand Factors - The stainless steel industry is experiencing seasonal downturns and profit pressures, leading to reduced nickel demand [2]. - Although the long-term outlook for the electric vehicle market remains positive, recent growth rates have shown signs of slowing, resulting in cautious procurement behaviors within the supply chain [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The nickel market is currently in a critical observation phase, with price direction dependent on several core variables, including supply policy expectations, geopolitical disturbances, and potential demand recovery signals [3]. - The market is likely to maintain high volatility until a new, overwhelming driving factor emerges [3].