供需格局延续宽松 预计铁矿石上涨空间有限

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with stable supply but declining domestic demand, leading to limited potential for price increases in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Inventory and Supply - The total inventory of imported iron ore at national steel mills is 87.24 million tons, a decrease of 1.10 million tons month-on-month [1]. - The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills is 2.81 million tons, down by 27,000 tons from the previous month [1]. - The inventory-to-consumption ratio stands at 31.09 days, a slight decrease of 0.09 days [1]. - Port inventory of iron ore reached 162.26 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week-on-week, marking a 0.71% rise [1]. - Over the past month, port inventory has increased by 4.91 million tons, a rise of 3.12% [1]. Group 2: Company Developments - Genmin Limited has successfully completed a directed share placement raising AUD 25.7 million (approximately USD 17 million) to support the development of its Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon [1]. - The Baniaka project has confirmed ore resources of approximately 759 million tons, with an initial planned capacity of 5 million tons per year, expected to increase to at least 10 million tons per year, aiming for commercial production by the end of 2026 [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook - According to Galaxy Futures, global iron ore shipments have continued to increase steadily since December, with Australian shipments remaining stable year-on-year and Brazilian shipments contributing slight increases [2]. - Domestic steel demand has shown a rapid decline since the third quarter, with no significant improvement expected in the near term, particularly in the real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors [2]. - One德期货 notes that while the black market maintains an upward trend, the momentum in futures is slowing down, indicating a potential for price declines despite strong sentiment in iron ore buying [2].