智通财经网·2025-12-19 09:23Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating for COSCO Shipping Energy H shares (01138), lowering the target price from HKD 13 to HKD 12, while keeping a "neutral" rating for COSCO Shipping Energy A shares (600026.SH) with a target price reduction from RMB 14 to RMB 13 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Despite concerns that current shipping disruptions may gradually ease, it is expected that oil tanker profitability will remain resilient next year, suggesting investors should buy COSCO Shipping Energy H shares on dips [1] - Industry data indicates that global oil tanker capacity and demand are projected to grow by 2.2% and 1% year-on-year, respectively, but the actual supply-demand relationship remains tight [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Oil tanker demand is expected to increase by 0.9% year-on-year, while supply is projected to grow by only 0.7%, with the supply-demand situation for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) being particularly tight [1] - Stable OPEC production is expected to help maintain this tight supply-demand balance [1] Group 3: Structural Supply Constraints - Over 20% of the global oil tanker fleet is over 20 years old, with many vessels concentrated in the "shadow fleet," limiting their ability to participate in compliant trade [1] - Geopolitical tensions have further increased transportation demand, with approximately 18% to 20% of the global fleet involved in non-compliant transportation due to expanded sanctions on vessels related to Russia, Iran, and Venezuela [1]