云评论 | PX、PTA：行情启动就像龙卷风

Core Viewpoint - PX and PTA futures contracts experienced significant increases, breaking through three-month highs, indicating a positive market outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond [5][16]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 19, PX2603 contract rose by 252 CNY to 7070 CNY/ton, with a trading volume increase of 52,000 lots, marking a 3.7% rise [5][16]. - PTA2605 contract increased by 158 CNY to 4884 CNY/ton, with a trading volume surge of 190,000 lots, reflecting a 3.34% increase [5][16]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply outlook for PX and PTA is limited, with no new PX capacity added in the first three quarters of 2026 and no new PTA capacity planned domestically for the year [6][17]. - Polyester production capacity is estimated at 4 million tons, with a neutral growth rate of 4-5%, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and a tighter market overall [6][17]. Group 3: Maintenance and Operational Status - Recent supply and demand conditions for PX and PTA have remained stable, with major PTA suppliers expected to continue maintenance into the new year, resulting in minimal seasonal inventory pressure [7][18]. - Three main production units are under maintenance, with expectations for continued maintenance into January-February 2026, while polyester production is anticipated to maintain high operational rates [9][21]. Group 4: Price Elasticity and Future Outlook - PX shows stronger price elasticity compared to PTA, with no new PX capacity expected from 2024, while PTA's production growth has been faster in recent years [10][22]. - The market sentiment for 2026 remains optimistic, with expectations for a balanced supply-demand situation and potential for price recovery in PTA processing fees [11][23].