12月19日金市晚评：三大央行政策角力 黄金短期震荡后择向

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the potential impact of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions on the gold market, highlighting the interplay between currency movements and gold as a safe-haven asset. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of December 19, the spot gold price is trading at $4326.22 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.11% from the previous day, reaching a high of $4336.33 and a low of $4308.59 [1][2] - The market is closely watching the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, which could signal the start of a rate hike cycle, potentially leading to increased volatility in the gold market [1][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November has decreased to 2.7%, which is below the market expectation of 3.1% [2] - President Trump has indicated that the next Federal Reserve chair will be someone who supports significant rate cuts, which may influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that if negotiations between the U.S. and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict progress, gold prices may experience a significant drop next week [3] - The potential for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan could lead to a withdrawal of funds from various asset classes, putting additional pressure on gold prices [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - In the medium term, the normalization of Japan's monetary policy is expected to strengthen the yen, which may weaken the dollar and benefit gold as a dollar-denominated asset [4] - The long-term trajectory of gold prices will continue to be influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycle, central bank reserve demands, and geopolitical uncertainties [4] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a positive outlook for precious metals, with prices forming higher highs and lows while remaining above the key 100-period moving average [5] - The first resistance level for gold is at $4353, and a decisive breakout above this level could lead to a rise towards historical highs of $4381 and a psychological target of $4400 [6] - Conversely, if bearish signals emerge and prices fall below $4300, sellers may gain momentum, potentially driving gold towards lower support levels [6]