政策与供需双轮驱动下，2026年电石行业走向何方？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the calcium carbide market is experiencing price declines due to increased supply and weak downstream demand, particularly in the PVC industry [1][2] - In December, the price of calcium carbide has dropped significantly, with some manufacturers in the Wuhai region reporting a decrease of 100 yuan per ton within a week, leading to increased inventory pressure for producers [1] - The production capacity of calcium carbide is expected to be limited due to stringent approval processes for new capacity, with only existing companies allowed to make minor increases through technological upgrades or capacity replacements [2] Group 2 - By 2026, the calcium carbide industry is projected to see a structural increase in operating rates, driven by the exit of outdated production capacities, while the focus will remain on small-scale plants with annual capacities of 100,000 tons or less [2] - The demand for calcium carbide is anticipated to grow, particularly from developing Asian countries like India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, which are experiencing industrialization and have limited domestic production capabilities [2] - The price of calcium carbide is expected to remain stable but weak, influenced by factors such as raw material costs, production costs, and downstream demand, with a potential for price fluctuations within a defined range due to seasonal demand changes and regional policies [3]