ATFX汇评:欧央行决议在即 预期维持三大政策利率不变

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated interest rate decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB), highlighting differing economic conditions in the UK and Eurozone that influence these expectations [1][9]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The BoE is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points, although there is a possibility of maintaining the current rate [1][9]. - The ECB is anticipated to keep its three key policy rates unchanged, with a potential for future rate cuts depending on economic conditions [1][9]. - The ECB's current key rates are 2.15% for the refinancing rate, 2.4% for the marginal lending rate, and 2% for the deposit facility rate [4][12]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's unemployment rate has remained stable at 6.4% for six consecutive months, and the core inflation rate has been steady at 2.4% for three months [4][12]. - In contrast, the UK's unemployment rate is projected to rise steadily until 2025, indicating potential economic recession, which may compel the BoE to reduce rates to stimulate growth [4][12]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The EUR/USD currency pair is currently in a mid-term sideways trading pattern that began on June 19, indicating a consensus among market participants regarding the trading range [7][15]. - The upper limit of this range is identified at 1.1917, while the lower limit is at 1.1467, with the latter forming a base for a potential upward movement [7][15].