【镍周评】宏观暖风拂过产业源头催热镍价翘尾，多头棋局落子圣诞周

Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - The domestic nickel price in the Changjiang spot market experienced a "V-shaped reversal," with prices rising to a weekly high of 120,450 yuan/ton by Friday, after hitting a low of 115,500 yuan/ton mid-week [3] - The average price for the week was reported at 117,120 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 340 yuan compared to the previous week, indicating sensitivity to global liquidity expectations and industry news [3][5] - The price movements were influenced by macroeconomic sentiments, including a shift from concerns over the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance to expectations of interest rate cuts following a significant drop in the U.S. core CPI [3][9] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic nickel production is characterized by "structural differentiation" with stable total output, as major producers maintain high operational loads to meet annual targets [4] - However, profit margins are under pressure due to weak stainless steel demand, leading to passive production cuts among smaller, higher-cost nickel producers [4][5] - The import of nickel from Indonesia continues to rise, reshaping the domestic supply structure and exerting competitive pressure on local production [4][5] Group 3: Demand Insights - The nickel market is currently experiencing a "weak reality, strong expectation" scenario, with significant structural differentiation in demand [6] - The stainless steel sector is facing seasonal weakness and cautious procurement, while the growth in the new energy sector is slowing, although high-end models continue to support demand for high-nickel ternary batteries [6] - The anticipated significant production cuts in Indonesia for 2026 have shifted market perceptions regarding long-term nickel oversupply, coinciding with global liquidity easing expectations [6] Group 4: London Nickel Futures - The London nickel market also exhibited a "V-shaped" reversal, driven by macroeconomic sentiments, with prices recovering after initial declines due to concerns over U.S. manufacturing activity [9] - The price movements in London nickel have become decoupled from its fundamental demand, instead aligning closely with global market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies [9] Group 5: Inventory Trends - London nickel inventory showed a "V-shaped" pattern, with a temporary decrease followed by stabilization, indicating that while inventory levels provided some support for prices, they did not reflect strong physical demand [12] - The overall inventory is expected to remain above 250,000 tons, suggesting a continued state of supply abundance, which is not likely to drive significant price increases [12] Group 6: Outlook - The upcoming weeks are critical as global markets face a divergence in central bank policies, impacting asset pricing [13] - The nickel market is expected to experience weak fluctuations due to an oversupply situation, with price ranges projected between 14,850-15,100 USD/ton for London nickel and 117,000-120,000 yuan/ton for Changjiang spot nickel [13]