“一个极具动荡的时代”：全球经济前路不确定性加剧

Group 1 - The global economy is showing resilience despite challenges such as trade wars, mineral shortages, and tensions between the US and China, exceeding previous expectations [4][22] - The current era is characterized as highly turbulent, influenced by the AI revolution, rapid population aging, climate change, and a retreat from democratic norms and international order [5][6] - The chaotic economic policy-making in various countries is complicating the ongoing transformation [7][22] Group 2 - In the US, contradictory policy statements from the White House are causing uncertainty, with recent tariff changes impacting various food products and threatening new tariffs on rice from India and China [7][24] - The US public debt has surged to a historic high of 125% of GDP, with plans to utilize $250 billion in tariff revenue for financial support to farmers and taxpayers [24] - The stock market has seen significant gains driven by AI companies, raising concerns about potential market crashes [24] Group 3 - European countries are lagging in economic growth compared to other developed economies, with the EU's share of the global economy shrinking amid fierce competition from the US and China [24][25] - The EU faces challenges in advancing key policies due to differing national priorities and pressures, exemplified by the recent postponement of a long-awaited trade agreement involving South American countries [25] - High energy prices and competition from Chinese goods are constraining local producers and manufacturers in Europe [25] Group 4 - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is prompting European governments to increase fiscal spending and military expenditures, further escalating debt levels [27] - China's economic influence continues to grow, with a $1 trillion annual trade surplus indicating that US tariff policies have not diminished China's trade dominance [27] - The International Monetary Fund has raised China's annual economic growth forecast to 5%, highlighting the resilience of its export-driven growth model [27] Group 5 - The global trade order, long dominated by the US, is being disrupted, leading to increased uncertainty and cost pressures in the global economy [30] - The rise of temporary bilateral trade agreements is causing businesses to worry about raw material sourcing and compliance costs [30] - The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, with ongoing political shifts potentially introducing more instability [30][31]