金丰来:减息预期 金银齐扬
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-19 10:36

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by weak U.S. employment data, which has raised expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, alongside geopolitical tensions due to U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers [1][3][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are trading around $4,340, having risen approximately 1% in a single session, supported by the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $4,258, indicating an upward trend [1][3]. - The MACD indicator is above the signal line and in positive territory, suggesting that the upward momentum remains strong, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 60, indicating that the market is not yet in overbought territory [1][4]. - If gold can maintain above the $4,300 level, it is expected to continue its upward trajectory; however, a drop below this level may lead to a consolidation phase [1][4]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver has reached a historical high of $66.89, with the MACD turning positive, indicating increased upward pressure, while the RSI at 69.62 suggests that the upward momentum may be slowing [2][4]. - The immediate resistance level is at the historical high of $66.89, with potential targets for further upward movement at the Fibonacci extension levels of $68.30 and $70.00 [2][4]. - Downward support levels are identified at $64.72, $63.35, and $60.87, indicating potential areas for price stabilization [2][4]. Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing weakness, with multiple failed rebounds leading to a "gradually declining low" trend [5]. - Following the "1011" crash, the futures leverage in the cryptocurrency market has been fully cleared, resulting in a historically low speculative leverage ratio, which is seen as a positive signal for the market [5]. - The cryptocurrency market is expected to remain volatile but holds long-term potential, especially with anticipated U.S. tax cuts, interest rate reductions, and relaxed regulations by 2026 [5].