ZFX山海证券:比特币的长期定价逻辑

Core Viewpoint - Institutional investors are experiencing a structural change in their perception of Bitcoin, shifting from short-term price volatility to long-term asset allocation and portfolio efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - ZFX Shan Hai Securities believes Bitcoin is no longer just a high-volatility trading asset but is being integrated into standardized capital market analysis frameworks, providing a new methodological basis for its long-term valuation [1][2] - Bitcoin is now suitable for comparative analysis with traditional assets, including expected returns, volatility characteristics, and correlations with other assets [3][4] - The entry of institutional funds is changing Bitcoin's price formation mechanism, aligning it more closely with mid-to-long-term fundamentals rather than being driven by single cycles [3][4] Group 2: Valuation Methodology - A multi-framework parallel analysis is more effective in understanding Bitcoin's long-term value, as its share in global value storage assets continues to rise [4] - Bitcoin's fixed supply mechanism and sensitivity to liquidity conditions give it unique allocation significance during specific macroeconomic phases [4] - As institutional participation increases, trends show a decrease in volatility and maintenance of low correlation, enhancing its diversification value within portfolios [4] Group 3: Price Projections - Different adoption scenarios will directly influence Bitcoin's valuation; under a steady growth scenario, Bitcoin's price could reach hundreds of thousands of dollars, while widespread institutional adoption could push it into the million-dollar range [2][4] - In highly optimistic scenarios, Bitcoin's potential as a mainstream value storage tool suggests even higher market capitalization [2][4] Group 4: Asset Allocation Practice - Incorporating Bitcoin into a diversified investment portfolio at a low percentage can enhance overall return potential while keeping risks manageable [2][4] - Models indicate that even a small allocation can positively impact the efficient frontier, explaining the growing interest from long-term funds in its strategic allocation value [2][4] Group 5: Overall Perspective - Bitcoin is gradually transitioning from an "atypical asset" to a long-term allocation tool that can be systematically modeled and managed [2][4] - The core value of Bitcoin lies not in short-term price predictions but in the long-term adoption process, macroeconomic changes, and its evolving position within the global asset system [2][4]