asyMarkets 易信:比特币再度回落

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has recently exhibited a "high-to-low" trend, reflecting a typical characteristic of the current cryptocurrency market, where macro data briefly stimulates risk appetite but prices struggle to maintain trends [1][2] Macro Analysis - Inflation data has shown a significant slowdown, sparking market speculation about a shift towards a more accommodative policy environment, which theoretically benefits risk assets [1][2] - However, the market has not fully embraced this sentiment, as some investors are reassessing the sustainability of the data, leading to a cautious response in risk assets and widening the performance gap between the stock market and cryptocurrencies [1][2] Price Performance - Bitcoin faces significant selling pressure above $89,000, while support around $85,000 remains relevant in the short term [1][2] - The current market environment resembles a wide-ranging consolidation rather than a trend decline, with frequent rapid reversals reminding traders to manage their positions and pacing [1][2] Derivatives Market - The options structure in the derivatives market clearly reflects a change in market sentiment, with Bitcoin options indicating that investors are inclined to accept range-bound volatility and do not have high expectations for significant breakthroughs [3] - Ethereum shows a stronger defensive posture, with funds being used more for hedging rather than speculating on price increases [3] Short-term Outlook - The cryptocurrency market is expected to be influenced by the dual factors of macro data interpretation and changes in risk appetite in the short term [4] - In the absence of clear trend signals, Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to maintain a consolidation pattern, suggesting that investors should focus on risk management and flexible responses rather than making unilateral bets on market direction [4]