FXGT:比特币链上强势延续

Core Insights - Bitcoin's realized market capitalization remains stable at approximately $1.125 trillion despite a nearly 40% price pullback, indicating that real capital has not experienced systemic outflow [1][3] - The divergence between price correction and stable funding suggests that the market is undergoing structural consolidation rather than a trend reversal [1][3] On-Chain Metrics - Realized market capitalization, which reflects the actual capital in the market by calculating the last transfer price of each Bitcoin, is more indicative of long-term investor behavior compared to traditional market cap metrics [4] - During a recent 36% price decline, the realized market cap continued to rise, showing a stable holding structure among investors, contrasting sharply with previous bear markets where significant capital shrinkage occurred [4] Market Sentiment and Macro Environment - Current market conditions do not exhibit the panic selling seen in previous downturns, suggesting that long-term investors maintain confidence despite price corrections [2][4] - Macro factors are improving, with global economic growth showing resilience, a shift towards a more accommodative monetary environment, and gradually improving liquidity conditions, which historically support scarce assets like Bitcoin [2][4] Market Cycle Analysis - The traditional "four-year cycle" framework is being questioned as market maturity, institutional participation, and macro variables increasingly influence Bitcoin's price dynamics [5] - If macro liquidity continues to improve, future price movements may exhibit more elastic structural increases rather than strictly adhering to historical timing patterns [5] Future Outlook - Bitcoin is currently viewed as being in a consolidation phase within a mid-to-long-term trend rather than at a cyclical peak, with the potential for renewed upward momentum as long as the realized market cap remains high and the holding structure stable [3][5]