从“等待确证”到“预防滞后” 植田和男欲重塑日本货币政策逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the highest level since September 1995 and ending nearly three decades of ultra-low interest rates [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The decision to raise interest rates was unanimously approved by the policy committee, indicating a strong consensus on the need for this adjustment [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the rate hike was due to reduced risks of declining inflation and growth rates [1] - Ueda highlighted the importance of monitoring the impact of a weak yen on core inflation while avoiding direct comments on exchange rate levels [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Ueda pointed out that the current wage growth is a key factor supporting stable core inflation, stating that as long as wages continue to rise, core inflation will not decline [1] - The governor acknowledged the challenges in accurately defining the neutral interest rate and admitted the risk of exceeding it with the current rate hike [2] - He noted that the Bank of Japan's balance sheet effects are still in play, suggesting that a loose monetary environment will persist even during the rate hike cycle [2] Group 3: Policy Framework and Future Outlook - Ueda reiterated the Bank's data-driven approach, stating that future policy decisions will depend on available data, focusing on core inflation rather than short-term fluctuations in overall CPI [2][3] - The Bank of Japan is transitioning to a data-driven normalization phase, moving away from the previous paradigm of unlimited easing [3] - Ueda's statements indicate a cautious path towards exiting ultra-loose monetary policy, emphasizing a wage-price positive cycle as an anchor for policy adjustments [3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Analyst Opinions - Analyst Justin Low expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a strong response from Ueda towards the government, suggesting that the threshold for the next rate hike will be higher than the recent one [4] - Low noted that while Ueda has opened the door for further rate hikes, his statements did not convey a strong commitment to raise rates again by March 2026 [4]