【铁矿年报】故事重点或在供给端

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the iron ore market in 2025 is on the supply side, with expectations of a gradual increase in imports and domestic production, despite some challenges in the market dynamics [2][92]. Supply - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's iron ore imports showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a year-on-year increase of 8.76 million tons (1.5%) to 114 million tons, and the total for the year is expected to exceed 124.9 million tons [2][52]. - Domestic iron ore production is projected to reach 29.5 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 0.71%, but is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter as safety and environmental pressures ease [90]. - The iron ore pricing benchmark will be adjusted from 62% iron content to 61%, indicating a potential shift in the pricing system [91]. Demand - Domestic demand for iron ore in 2025 is estimated at 149.8 million tons, an increase of 5.997 million tons (+4.23%) year-on-year, with expectations for stable demand in 2026 [92]. - The real estate sector is expected to see a slowdown in declines, while infrastructure investment is projected to grow year-on-year, and the manufacturing sector remains positive [92]. Inventory - As of early December 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 154 million tons, with a trend towards increased inventory due to a combination of slow production increases and resilient demand [93]. - The iron ore supply-demand balance is expected to shift towards a more relaxed state in 2026, with the possibility of continued inventory accumulation, although short-term tightness may occur due to weather and other factors [93].