玻璃期价再走弱，为何市场显得犹豫？

Core Viewpoint - Glass futures experienced a rebound this week, but the sustainability of this rebound appears weak, with prices likely to continue to decline [1][14]. Market Dynamics - The glass market is primarily constrained by seasonal contraction and persistent weakness in downstream real estate demand. Despite a reduction in supply, with daily melting capacity of float glass decreasing from approximately 160,000 tons in October to around 155,000 tons in December, this adjustment has not fully matched the pace of demand decline [3][16]. - As of December 18, total inventory of glass in sample enterprises reached 58.558 million heavy boxes, an increase of 0.57 million heavy boxes from the previous week, indicating a slow inventory digestion process despite ongoing price reductions by enterprises [3][16]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The high inventory levels continue to exert pressure on prices, as inventory is merely being transferred rather than reflecting an improvement in end-user demand [3][16]. - The market sentiment remains cautious, with many operators hesitant due to pessimistic outlooks on future demand, leading to a lack of enthusiasm for buying [8][21]. Macroeconomic and Policy Context - Recent policy expectations from the Central Economic Work Conference emphasize "seeking progress while maintaining stability," with hopes for support in the real estate sector. However, the transition from policy expectations to actual demand will take time, as current mid-term data on real estate sales and investment remains weak [7][20]. - The dichotomy between strong expectations and weak realities is a fundamental reason for the hesitancy and brevity of each price rebound [7][20]. Market Sentiment and Behavior - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards pessimism and caution, with operators showing a strong willingness to reduce inventory. This cautious mindset has resulted in a lack of sustained buying power [8][21]. - The fluctuations in glass futures prices are also influenced by the sentiment in the broader black and building materials sectors, which can either support or hinder glass prices [8][21]. Trend Outlook - In the short term, glass futures prices are unlikely to exhibit a clear trend and may enter a complex "oscillation and bottoming" phase, with the lower boundary still under pressure [9][22]. - The market will focus on the speed of inventory reduction and the extent of supply contraction. Seasonal pressures from the upcoming Spring Festival may further reduce demand, while expectations of production line shutdowns could lead to accelerated inventory reduction, potentially stabilizing or boosting prices [9][22]. - The key to mid-term market trends will shift from recent realities to demand expectations for the second quarter of 2025, with attention on spring demand and the effectiveness of policy implementations in stabilizing the market [9][22].