Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-19 12:48Core Insights - Meituan-W is expected to report Q4 revenue between 866.14 billion to 963.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -2.1% to 8.8% [1][6] - The anticipated net profit for Q4 is projected to be between -184.36 billion to -95.89 billion yuan, indicating a significant year-on-year decline of -396.3% to -254.1% [1][6] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 is forecasted to range from -172.43 billion to -88.83 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -275.1% to -190.2% [1][6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The average revenue forecast for Q4 is approximately 918.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [3][8] - The median revenue forecast stands at 918.61 billion yuan, also reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [3][8] - Various financial institutions have provided differing revenue estimates, with Morgan Stanley predicting the highest at 963.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [4][10] Business Performance Analysis - Meituan's third-quarter revenue reached 955 billion yuan, marking a 2.0% year-on-year increase, despite facing operational losses of 198 billion yuan [5][10] - The core local business revenue decreased by 2.8% to 674 billion yuan, while new business revenue grew by 15.9% to 280 billion yuan [5][10] - The company maintains a dominant market position in the high-price segment of the food delivery market, with a market share exceeding 66% [5][10] Strategic Developments - Meituan's flash purchase service continues to lead the market, leveraging a 30-minute delivery guarantee to enhance sales [11][12] - The Keeta service achieved its first monthly profit in the Hong Kong market and is expanding into Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, with plans to launch in São Paulo, Brazil [12][10] - The company is actively exploring overseas market opportunities, which are expected to broaden its total addressable market (TAM) and create structural flexibility for future profit growth [12][10]