法国2026年预算案“难产”！政治僵局阻碍财政进展 债务失控风险加剧

Core Viewpoint - The French Parliament's committee failed to reach an agreement on the 2026 budget, delaying discussions on the complete fiscal plan to the next year, raising concerns about the government's ability to control the deficit [1][2] Group 1: Budget and Fiscal Concerns - The committee, composed of seven National Assembly members and seven senators, abandoned efforts to coordinate the budget draft due to significant disagreements among political factions [1] - Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu expressed regret over the lack of willingness among some lawmakers to reach an agreement, stating that the parliament would not pass a budget by the end of the year [1] - The approved fiscal plan is expected to reduce the 2026 deficit to 5.3% of GDP, down from 5.4% this year, although the initial target was set at 4.7% [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The French economy is projected to grow at a rate of 1.1% in 2024 and further slow to 0.8% in 2025, impacted by weak domestic demand and investment, as well as geopolitical uncertainties [5] - Inflation in France has significantly decreased, with November's rate at 0.8%, below the European Central Bank's target and the Eurozone's rate of 2.4% [5] Group 3: Credit Ratings and Debt - KBRA downgraded France's long-term sovereign rating to AA-, citing persistent high deficits and deteriorating debt trajectory, while changing the outlook from negative to stable [6] - The IMF predicts that France's debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from approximately 116% in 2025 to nearly 130% by 2030, contrasting with the fiscal consolidation paths of most Eurozone countries [7] - The French Treasury anticipates that debt servicing costs will surge to €59.3 billion in 2026, up from €36.2 billion in 2020 [7] Group 4: Political Environment and Reforms - The fragmented political landscape in France is hindering substantial fiscal reforms, with President Macron facing difficulties in passing key legislation and budgetary measures [6] - Efforts to implement controversial pension reforms, initially expected to save €11 billion annually by 2027, have been delayed or shelved due to the need for fragile parliamentary support [6] Group 5: Market Access and Euro Impact - Despite various weaknesses, France maintains strong financing flexibility, benefiting from deep liquidity and a diversified investor base [8] - KBRA warns that without sustained fiscal consolidation and greater political stability, France's debt burden may continue to rise, limiting mid-term policy flexibility [9] - The issues in France may not lead to a collapse of the Euro but could label it with "internal governance risks," affecting its long-term valuation and making it more susceptible to sell-offs during market turmoil [9]