Steel Dynamics Projects Sequentially Lower Q4 Earnings on Seasonality

Core Insights - Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) has provided earnings guidance for Q4 2025, estimating earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $1.65 to $1.69, which is an increase from $1.36 in Q4 2024 but a decline from $2.74 in Q3 2025 due to seasonal demand softness and operational challenges [1][5] Group 1: Earnings and Profitability - The anticipated lower profitability in steel operations is attributed to reduced average realized selling prices and lower shipment volumes, impacted by seasonal weakness and planned maintenance outages, resulting in a production curtailment of 140,000 to 150,000 tons [2][5] - Earnings from metals recycling and steel fabrication segments are also expected to decline sequentially due to reduced seasonal shipments [3] Group 2: Demand Outlook and Operational Developments - Despite the challenges, Steel Dynamics reported steady order activity and a robust backlog extending into Q2 2026, with expectations for improved volumes as interest rates may decline and infrastructure spending supports future demand [3] - The company is progressing with the commissioning of the aluminum flat rolled products mill and the San Luis Potosi satellite recycled slab center [4] Group 3: Stock Performance and Buybacks - Steel Dynamics repurchased approximately $200 million of its common stock during Q4 [4] - Shares of STLD have increased by 38.7% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average rise of 36% [4]