特朗普调整关税后，美国咖啡仍面临涨价压力

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments to tariffs by President Trump are unlikely to lead to immediate reductions in coffee prices for American consumers, as the primary driver of price increases has been supply shortages rather than tariff policies [1][8]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments and Their Impact - Trump's administration imposed broad import tariffs on several countries, including Brazil, a major coffee producer, which has led to increased prices for raw coffee beans [1][2]. - The cancellation of tariffs on over 200 food items, including coffee, was a response to voter dissatisfaction with rising food prices, particularly in states where Democrats won recent elections [2][8]. - The additional 40% tariffs on non-native foods from Brazil were excluded, as Brazil supplies about one-third of the coffee beans imported by the U.S. [2][8]. Group 2: Coffee Price Dynamics - The cost of raw coffee beans accounts for at least 40% of the production cost of roasted coffee, and prices have surged due to supply shortages caused by adverse weather over the past three seasons [3][9]. - Experts predict that coffee bean production will exceed demand in the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons, which, combined with the tariff cancellations, could lead to a decrease in raw bean prices that may eventually reach consumers [3][9]. - The transmission of raw bean price changes to consumer prices typically takes at least nine months due to roasting cycles and pricing negotiations [1][3][9]. Group 3: Current Price Trends - As of November, the retail price of coffee in the U.S. has increased by 18.8% over the past year, with minimal influence from tariff policies [5][11]. - During the period when Trump's tariffs were most effective (August to November), raw bean prices rose nearly 35%, but this increase has not yet been reflected in retail prices [5][12]. - The price of raw beans has only decreased by 6% since the tariff adjustments, indicating that prices tend to rise quickly but fall slowly [5][12]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The recent tariff adjustments have temporarily slowed the rate of coffee price increases, with some companies announcing they will not raise prices further to cover tariff costs [6][13]. - Despite the tariff cancellations, industry leaders indicate that this alone is insufficient to lower market prices significantly, as high raw bean prices persist [6][13][14]. - Consumers may not fully recognize the ongoing high prices of raw beans, focusing instead on tariff-related issues [14].