纽约联储主席：“技术性因素”致使11月CPI被压低

Core Insights - The November core CPI unexpectedly slowed to its lowest level since 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, compared to the Dow Jones economists' forecast of 3.1% [4][5][9] - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, indicated that "technical factors" likely distorted the November inflation data, potentially lowering the CPI reading by about 0.1 percentage points due to data collection issues in October and early November [3][7][8] - Williams noted that the data collection was primarily focused on the promotional activities in the latter half of November, which may have contributed to a downward bias in the reported figures [4][8] Data Collection Issues - The report lacked standard data indicators due to the cancellation of the October CPI report, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics used "non-survey data sources" to compile the index [5][9] - Economists may interpret the report cautiously, as the absence of October data makes it difficult to conclude that inflation is on a sustained downward trend [5][9] - The methodology used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for estimating missing data, particularly for owner’s equivalent rent, may have resulted in a lower calculation for that metric [5][9] Positive Signals - Despite the data collection issues, Williams observed encouraging signs from unaffected categories, indicating that price pressures in some areas are easing [4][8] - He expressed optimism that the observed inflation slowdown process is ongoing, as reflected in the report [4][8]