（财经天下）日本央行加息至30年来最高点 专家警示“危险一跃”

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, amid contradictory fiscal and monetary policies [1] - Japan's inflation has exceeded the 2% target for 44 consecutive months, and the government has passed a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025, indicating a mismatch in policy [1][2] - The recent adjustment in interest rates may suppress consumption, investment, and exports, potentially leading to further contraction in Japan's GDP [1][2] Group 2 - The revised GDP data shows a contraction of 0.6% in Q3, with an annualized decline of 2.3%, exceeding previous market expectations [2] - The combination of tight monetary policy and expansive fiscal policy may increase government debt financing costs and exacerbate fiscal risks [2] - Analysts suggest that the recent interest rate hike may challenge the yen's status as a safe-haven currency, as it undermines the low-interest environment that supports carry trades [3] Group 3 - The normalization of monetary policy in Japan could increase volatility in the yen's exchange rate, affecting its long-term value and undermining its safe-haven appeal [3] - Global market participants have anticipated the Bank of Japan's rate hike, leading to a withdrawal of speculative funds, which may limit the impact on global liquidity [3][4] - Despite potential short-term turbulence from the rate hike, the long-term trend of global monetary easing is expected to continue [4]