It's going to be an uphill battle to convince the fed to cut rates: Apollo Global's Torsten Slok

Economic Outlook - The market is focused on the implications of the new Fed chair on interest rates, particularly the challenge of convincing other FOMC members to support rate cuts [2][3] - There are expectations of economic growth accelerating due to various tailwinds, including the "one big beautiful bill" and favorable oil prices [4][5] - Inflation is currently around 3%, and there are concerns about maintaining interest rates in a growing economy [6] Employment Trends - Job growth has slowed significantly, with net immigration into the US dropping from around 3 million annually to a projected 500,000 over the next two years [8] - The new equilibrium rate for non-farm payrolls has decreased from 200,000 to 30,000 jobs created monthly due to reduced immigration [9] Risks to Growth - Stagflation is identified as a significant risk, particularly if AI does not meet growth expectations [10] - The construction of data centers has contributed positively to GDP growth, but a slowdown in capital expenditures could pose risks [11] - Inflation remains a complex issue, with various forces at play, and there are expectations of elevated inflation risks in the coming months [12][14] FOMC Considerations - The FOMC is divided on the approach to interest rates, balancing a weaker labor market against persistent inflation risks [15]