XLF Rally Continuing Into 2026? Rebecca Walser Offers Banking Bull Case

Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector has shown strong performance in 2025, with the XLF gaining 13% this year and over 65% in the last three years [1] - Major banks such as JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs have reached new all-time highs in December [1] Outlook for 2026 - There is optimism that the strength in financials could continue into 2026, particularly if the Federal Reserve maintains an accommodative rate policy [2][3] - Lower interest rates are expected to stimulate mortgage activity, benefiting both large and regional banks [3][4] Impact of Interest Rates - Lower rates are anticipated to increase mortgage refinancing and purchasing activity, which in turn supports ancillary businesses related to home ownership [4][5] - The current environment may not encourage savings in money markets, but there remains a significant amount of capital in money markets that could rotate back into equities [6] Regional vs. Large Banks - Regional banks are more vulnerable to issues in commercial real estate, which is a significant concern due to the resetting of loans issued before 2020 at higher rates [7][8] - Large banks are better positioned to withstand potential challenges in 2026 compared to regional banks [9] Technological Adaptation - There is a call for banks to invest in decentralized finance technologies, such as blockchain and stable coins, to remain competitive in the future [10][11] - The shift towards decentralized finance is seen as a long-term trend that banks need to prepare for now [11]