Fed's Goolsbee says rates ‘could come down' if economy stays on ‘golden path'

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee indicated that the potential for further interest rate cuts could arise if economic indicators continue on their current positive trajectories, particularly regarding inflation data [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Goolsbee highlighted the positive aspects of the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, noting a 0.2% increase over two months from September to November and a year-over-year rise of 2.7%, which was below economists' expectations of a 0.3% monthly increase and a 3.1% year-over-year rise [2][4]. - The CPI report reflects a delayed reporting window due to a recent government shutdown, which did not include the standard one-month change from October to November [2]. Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve recently announced its third interest rate cut of the year, reducing the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, following similar cuts in September and October [4]. - Goolsbee expressed discomfort with preemptively front-loading rate cuts before confirming a return to the 2% inflation target, suggesting that rates could be lowered significantly if full employment and stable inflation are achieved [5][8]. Labor Market Concerns - In response to concerns about the U.S. job market and rising unemployment rates, Goolsbee noted that most job market measures, aside from payroll employment, have shown steady but mild cooling [6][7]. - He emphasized the need for assurance that inflationary spikes are transitory and not indicative of a longer-term trend before considering further rate reductions [8].