SERV vs. UBER: Which Autonomous Delivery Stock Has More Upside?

Core Insights - Autonomous delivery is transitioning from experimentation to early commercialization, driven by advancements in AI, robotics, and computing, alongside rising labor costs and urban congestion [1] - Serve Robotics and Uber represent two distinct approaches to automation in last-mile logistics, with Serve Robotics focusing on AI-powered sidewalk delivery robots and Uber integrating autonomy into a broader delivery platform [1][2] Serve Robotics Overview - Serve Robotics is a first-mover in autonomous sidewalk delivery, targeting short-distance urban trips where robots can replace car-based delivery [4] - The company has deployed over 1,000 robots across five major U.S. cities, serving over 3,600 restaurants as of Q3 2025 [4] - In Q3 2025, delivery volume increased by 66% sequentially, and revenues rose 209% year over year to $687,000, indicating strong operational momentum [5] - Serve Robotics benefits from partnerships with Uber and DoorDash, enhancing its addressable order volume and leveraging AI advancements through collaborations with NVIDIA [6] - Despite rapid growth, Serve Robotics faces significant challenges, including deep losses, capital-intensive scaling, and regulatory hurdles, with projected revenue growth of 10X in 2026 but uncertain profitability [7] Uber Overview - Uber's approach to autonomous delivery is as an extension of its profitable global platform, integrating autonomous vehicles while maintaining human drivers [8][10] - In Q3 2025, Uber reported a 33% increase in adjusted EBITDA, with delivery bookings up 25% year over year, highlighting its strong performance [9] - Uber's hybrid strategy allows it to benefit from autonomy without the full capital burden, creating a flexible operational model [10] - The company's scale enhances its optionality, with cross-platform users spending three times more than single-product users, reinforcing network effects [11] - Uber is generating substantial free cash flow, providing it with the flexibility to invest in autonomy as it matures [11] Stock Performance and Valuation - Serve Robotics shares have declined 25% year to date, reflecting investor caution regarding valuation and ongoing losses, while Uber's stock has risen 32.1% year to date [13] - Serve Robotics trades at a high forward price-to-sales ratio of 35.05X, indicating aggressive growth assumptions, while Uber trades at a modest 2.76X despite strong revenue growth [16] - Earnings revisions show a widening loss estimate for Serve Robotics, contrasting with positive revisions for Uber, which indicates stronger earnings momentum [19][21]