日本央行如期加息 对全球金融市场冲击几何？

Core Viewpoint - The recent "super central bank week" highlighted a divergence in monetary policies among major economies, with Japan raising interest rates while the US and UK opted for cuts, reflecting differing economic fundamentals and impacting global capital flows [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, marking its first rate hike in 11 months [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England both cut rates by 25 basis points, with the Fed lowering its target range to 3.50% to 3.75% and the Bank of England reducing its rate to 3.75% [2][3]. - The European Central Bank decided to maintain its key rates unchanged, with the deposit rate at 2.00%, main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and marginal lending rate at 2.40% [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The divergence in monetary policy reflects the differences in economic fundamentals and policy goals among countries, significantly affecting global capital flows [3][6]. - The OECD report suggests that the space for further rate cuts among major economies is limited, with expectations that the easing cycle will conclude by the end of 2026 [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts believe that the impact of the Bank of Japan's rate hike will be limited, as the market had already priced in the increase, and the scale of carry trades has decreased over the past year [4]. - The potential for a repeat of last year's market turmoil following Japan's rate hike is considered low, with the current focus on US factors driving global liquidity and asset pricing [4][6]. - The outlook for Japan's monetary policy indicates a continued tightening trend, although challenges remain in balancing inflation control and economic support [6].