Analyst Says CPI Print Is Make-or-Break Moment for Year-End Rally

Core Insights - Markets are closely monitoring the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could significantly influence the performance of risk assets towards the end of the year [1][8] - A higher-than-expected CPI could suppress expectations for interest rate cuts, negatively impacting equities and digital assets, while a softer CPI could boost hopes for easier monetary policy and potentially trigger a rally [3][8] Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin is currently trading near $85,300, having experienced a 2% decline, and is range-bound between $85,000 and $90,000 due to a risk-off sentiment in the market [4][8] - Recent mixed macroeconomic data, including surprising nonfarm payrolls and a slight increase in unemployment, has contributed to a bearish market momentum, limiting immediate upside for Bitcoin [5][8] - On-chain data indicates a slight increase in whale wallets and retail-sized holders, while addresses holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC have decreased, suggesting a pause in heavy whale distribution [6] - ETF inflows have provided additional support, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing over $450 million in inflows, despite a cooling in futures market activity [6] - Derivatives data shows a significant reduction in speculation, with crypto futures open interest dropping by approximately $11 billion, indicating a stabilization in spot demand and a potential defense of the $85,000 level by buyers [7][8]