From on-device AI to the ‘girlfriend index,’ trading ideas from the research firm that nailed 2025’s investment themes

Group 1 - Citrini Research emphasizes that companies are not receiving adequate credit from investors for job cuts, which may lead to productivity gains driven by AI in 2026 [1][3] - The research firm has seen significant returns, with nearly all 2025 calls yielding up to 75%, particularly in sectors like electronic warfare [2] - Citrini's analysis indicates that companies with low net income per employee that are also reducing headcount have underperformed compared to the S&P 500 [4] Group 2 - Larger corporations are expected to follow suit in layoffs once they observe competitors doing the same, with potential beneficiaries including CGI, Avery Dennison, IBM, Booz Allen Hamilton, and Cognizant Technology [5] - The firm discusses the implications of on-device AI, highlighting that memory will be crucial and costly, leading to potential bottlenecks in the market [6] - Recommendations include going long on companies enabling mobile inference on-device, such as MediaTek, Qualcomm, Analog Devices, and Apple, while shorting traditional computing hardware like laptops and PCs from companies like Lenovo, Nintendo, HP, Dell, and Corsair Gaming [7]