Treasury Yields Snapshot: December 19, 2025

Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.16% as of December 19, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.48% and the 30-year note at 4.82% [1] - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining even as the Fed held rates steady, with the latest 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.21% [7] Yield Curve Analysis - The 10-3 month spread also serves as an indicator for recessions, with lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks after turning negative, similar to the 10-2 spread [5] - The 10-2 spread was continuously negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, indicating potential recession signals [3]