汽车行业“破内卷”：技术与资本双轮驱动 迈向全球竞合新周期

Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a struggle between scale expansion and profit pressure, with a significant drop in profit margins from 7.8% in 2017 to 4.5% in 2025 [1] - The industry is focusing on regulating price competition, achieving globalization, and leveraging technological breakthroughs to reshape capital value [1] Group 1: Industry Competition and Pricing - The automotive sector is returning to orderly competition, with a decrease in the number of price-reduced models in November 2025 compared to the previous year [2] - The average price reduction across over 260 models was 11.2%, but the number of price cuts has started to decline, indicating a shift towards rational competition [2] - The industry's revenue grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, with profits increasing by 4.4%, reversing the previous downward trend [2] Group 2: Export Growth - In 2025, China's automotive exports reached 6.346 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with electric vehicle exports doubling to 2.315 million units [3] - The expectation for total exports in 2025 is over 7 million units, with electric vehicles accounting for more than 37% [3] - The ASEAN and Middle East markets are showing strong demand, with Mexico becoming the largest market for Chinese automotive exports [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for automotive technology innovation, particularly in battery technology and intelligent driving [4] - The introduction of L3 autonomous driving trials is seen as a crucial step towards industrialization, requiring synchronized technological and regulatory advancements [4] - The penetration rate of L2 driving assistance features in new passenger vehicles is expected to exceed 70% by 2026, with significant cost reductions in hardware [5] Group 4: Industry Transformation - The automotive industry is undergoing a profound transformation from scale-driven to value-driven growth, integrating technology, services, and ecology [6] - The focus is shifting from capacity expansion to technological innovation and global collaboration, aiming to establish global standards in key technologies [6] - The industry is evolving into a new sector that combines manufacturing with technology and services, positioning itself as a pillar of the national economy and a hub for global competition [6]