国际贸易政策环境明显恶化

Group 1 - The global trade policy environment is expected to deteriorate significantly between 2024 and 2025, with an increase in protectionism driven by escalating tensions among major powers and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - During the period from October 2024 to October 2025, countries are projected to implement 272 "other trade and trade-related measures," marking the second-highest level since the monitoring mechanism was established in 2009, only behind the peak of 286 measures in 2011 [1] - The trade value affected by restrictive policies is expected to surge from $888 billion in the previous monitoring year to $2.966 trillion, more than doubling [1] Group 2 - Supportive policies in agriculture, environment, and energy sectors have significantly increased, particularly non-financial support measures, indicating a closer link between trade policy and industrial policy [2] - In the environment and energy sectors, countries are adopting new emission standards, safety standards, and energy consumption requirements, as well as prioritizing low-carbon and environmentally friendly products [2] - The report highlights that many new industrial policy measures are not traditional subsidies but rather non-financial support for specific industries, reflecting increased government intervention in key areas [2] Group 3 - Despite the tense global trade environment, global trade activity is showing resilience, with a revised growth forecast for global goods trade in 2025 increased from 0.9% to 2.4% [3] - The demand for trade remains strong, with artificial intelligence-related products significantly contributing to global trade growth, accounting for nearly half of the increase despite representing less than one-sixth of total global trade [3] - Approximately 72% of global goods trade continues to operate under the most-favored-nation principle, demonstrating the resilience of the multilateral trading system [3] Group 4 - The report provides a cautious outlook for future trade, predicting a slowdown in global trade due to geopolitical uncertainties, with major regions expected to experience reduced growth [4] - It calls for enhanced cooperation among countries and reforms to address the current riskier trade environment, advocating for multilateral communication over unilateral actions [4] - Recommendations include improving transparency to reduce policy uncertainty and preventing sudden regulatory measures from disrupting trade activities [4]