世贸组织报告指出——国际贸易政策环境明显恶化

Core Insights - The global trade policy environment is expected to deteriorate significantly between 2024 and 2025, with an increase in protectionism and heightened tensions among major powers [1][4] - The number of restrictive trade measures implemented by countries reached 272 during the review period, marking the second-highest level since the monitoring mechanism was established in 2009 [1] - The total trade value affected by these restrictive measures surged from $888 billion to $2.966 trillion, more than doubling in the report period [1] - The share of global imports impacted by existing restrictive measures rose from 12.6% to 19.7% [1] Trade Policy and Industry Relations - Governments have significantly increased supportive policies in agriculture, environment, and energy sectors, particularly through non-financial measures [2] - New policies in the environment and energy sectors include emission standards, public procurement preferences for low-carbon products, and reforms to promote clean energy [2] - Agricultural policies are closely linked to food security and supply chain stability, with measures aimed at ensuring food supply safety and reducing import dependency [2] - The report highlights that many new industrial policy measures are not traditional subsidies but rather non-financial support, indicating a stronger government intervention in key sectors [2] Resilience of Global Trade Activities - Despite the tense global trade environment, trade activities are expected to grow stronger than anticipated, with a revised global goods trade growth forecast of 2.4% for 2025 [3] - AI-related products are driving significant trade growth, contributing nearly half of the global trade increase, despite accounting for less than one-sixth of total trade [3] - Approximately 72% of global goods trade continues to operate under the most-favored-nation principle, demonstrating the resilience of the multilateral trade system [3] Future Trade Outlook - The report presents a cautious outlook for global trade, predicting a slowdown due to geopolitical uncertainties and rising risks to the global economic outlook [4] - It calls for enhanced cooperation among countries and reforms to address the current trade environment's risks, advocating for multilateral dialogue over unilateral actions [4] - Recommendations include improving transparency to reduce policy uncertainty and modernizing the multilateral trade system to ensure long-term stability [4] - The report also suggests strengthening standard coordination to prevent new technical trade barriers arising from increased regulatory divergence in environmental and agricultural policies [4]