汽车行业“破内卷”： 技术与资本双轮驱动 迈向全球竞合新周期

Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a struggle between scale expansion and profit pressure, with a significant drop in profit margins from 7.8% in 2017 to 4.5% in 2025, despite a sales volume of 24.783 million vehicles and a new energy vehicle penetration rate exceeding 50.3% [1] - The industry is focusing on regulating price competition, achieving globalization, and leveraging technological breakthroughs to reshape capital value [1] Group 1: Industry Competition and Pricing - Price competition has significantly impacted the industry ecosystem, with a capacity utilization rate of only 72.2% in 2024, and state-owned enterprises and electric vehicle startups at 64% and 66% respectively [2] - After policy intervention, the number of discounted models decreased, leading to a 7.9% year-on-year revenue growth and a profit increase of 4.4% in the first ten months of 2025, reversing the declining trend [2] - Consumer behavior is shifting towards more rational decision-making, prompting companies to invest in technology R&D and service optimization to build long-term competitiveness [2] Group 2: Export Growth and Market Expansion - In 2025, China's automotive exports reached 6.346 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with new energy vehicle exports doubling to 2.315 million units [3] - The future opportunities in the automotive market lie in overseas market expansion, with a focus on establishing a strong presence in both domestic and international markets [3] - By 2026, Chinese automakers plan to have an overseas production capacity of 3 million units, with over 2 million units expected to be operational [3] Group 3: Technological Innovation - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for automotive technology innovation, with significant breakthroughs expected in battery technology, intelligent driving, and onboard computing power [4] - The introduction of L3 autonomous driving trials is seen as a crucial step towards industrialization, necessitating synchronized technological and regulatory advancements [4] - The penetration rate of L2 driving assistance features in new passenger vehicles is projected to exceed 70% by 2026, with costs for hardware significantly decreasing [5] Group 4: Industry Transformation - The automotive industry is undergoing a profound transformation from scale-driven to value-driven growth, integrating technology, services, and ecosystems [6] - The focus is shifting from capacity expansion to leveraging technological innovation and global collaboration, aiming to establish global standards and enhance the export model [6]